Multi Wave Analysis

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Using the Dow  Data as a basis I made this chart, moving averages I drew differs from the usual moving averages.


The next indicator that I suggest was never developed for any other platform.
I call it Multi Wave Analysis, name proposals are welcome.

You can noticethat the modified 12 and 25 moving averages have reaches a value higher than the maximum closing price for that period, the reason, the price moves below the short-wave, the moving average continue to grow, but due to changes in market conditions, momentum, inertia, or the fundamental data, price did not continue its growth.

Simplified, moving average with a larger period is the baseline for a shorter period moving average, shorter period moving average, fluctuated around a longer period moving average.
Unlike moving average, which followed the closing price, modified moving averages predict price trends, and indicate, the deviation from the defined wave.

Idea that have led me in developing this indicator is to try to distinguish waves of different amplitude and
period.

Review of individual  Mwa analysis components.

Buy and Sell signals are generated by 0 line crossover. 

Review of standard moving averages


200 day moving average is the same for both situations.

Buy and Sell signals are generated by crossover Shorter WMA THROUGH long, longer WMA, must be facing in the same direction as the shorter.

Rules are simple,
Buy/Sell
MWA12 Cross MWA 25
MWA25 Cross MWA 50
MWA50 Cross MWA 100
MWA100 Cross MWA 200

Close the position when the moving average cross back

If the trend is strong, you can use 50 moving average as an area of support for 25 and so on.

WMA12 can be used for early indication of the trend changes.


As a basis, I suggest the ordinary 200 period moving average, tag it SMA200,
Deduct obtained SMA200 from the closing price
Residual = Close - SMA 200

Calculate a 100 period moving average of Residual,
and deduct it from Residual
Residual = Residual - SMA100 of Residual

Procedure must be repeated for 50, 25 and 12 period

Draw the following curves, SMA200, Close,
MWA (100) = SMA200+SMA100 of 200Residual
MWA (50) = SMA200+SMA100 of 200Residual + SMA50 of 100Residual
MWA (25) = SMA200+SMA100 of 200Residual + SMA50 of 100Residual + SMA25 of 50Residual
MWA (12) = SMA200+SMA100 of 200Residual + SMA50 of 100Residual + SMA25 of 50Residual + SMA12 of 25Residual

Advantages of these modified moving average is obvious, at least to me,
earlier detection of changes in trend precise support and resistance definitions,
To achieve better results use variable length moving average, which are automatically adjusted to the length of the cycle of individual waves.

 

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